2013 Supercross | Atlanta | 250SX East & 450SX Predictions

(photo: amasupercross.com)

James Stewart!  He showed some real class by not throwing his team under the bus for the colossal mistake that kept him out of the main.  What a shame because Stewart was on his way for a win.  I have to apologize for not having much faith in him but I have changed my tune; I can still do that, right?  In any event, he should be furious but we should all be as forgiving as he.

Ok, so with my +/- handicaps I made tiny progress in the 450 class with 2 calls in the top 5 and 3 for the top 10.  In the 250 class I didn't do so well.  You'll see that I picked Durham to win and he wasn't even in the lineup; still out with an Achilles injury, no word on his return for Atlanta.  With the handicap I got the Wilson call and that was it.  I had a feeling I'd mess the bed in the first round of the 250 East; no excuses going forward.

I was most impressed with Brayton's performance even though he came in 5th, other than that I don't think there were any huge surprises in the 450SX class.  In the 250 class who can deny the performance by Marvin Musquin?  He'll be the one to watch this week in Atlanta.  Also, how about Will Hahn?  Way to step up.

I have another bone to pick with the broadcasting crew in the booth.  I just don't hear the unbridled enthusiasm from the guys except when someone goes down.  There were times when the guys stood silent, just letting the dead air float freely.  Are there times during a race when nothing is happening?  If I could make one suggestion, if there is nothing worth mentioning in the top of the order, focus on the bottom; there has to be something exciting going on at any time.

So this week we get to see Eli Tomac on the big bikes, that should be exciting; he could be a spoiler for Millsaps; should make for some great racing.  I kind of like the format last week with my picks.  I have no point of reference but I suspect my readers don't mind a shorter post.  I'll continue with the same this week and I really like the added intrigue the handicap adds to my viewing pleasure so that will continue too.

So how would the 450 guys answer the following question; What's it going to take to win the race?

450SX

1. Ryan Villopoto...........it's gonna take a good start
2. Davi Millsaps.........it'll take a good start -1
3. James Stewart.......ah man, just have to get a good start +1
4. Ryan Dungey........you know, a good start -1
5. Justin Barcia.......just get a good start -1
6. Chad Reed.......I sound like a broken record, but it's gonna take a good start +1
7. Eli Tomac.......a good start +1
8. Justin Brayton.......gotta get a good start -1
9. Trey Canard........a good start for sure -1
10. Andrew Short......have to get a good start
(A sure sign we need to mix it up some.....hint, take a look at the Monster Energy Cup for some ideas)


250SX

1. Dean Wilson...where is everybody, oh, they're behind me
2. Will Hahn...look out, I'm coming on your left -1
3. Marvin Musquin...get out of my way +1
4. Blake Wharton...I'm ready to move up, I think +1
5. Zach Bell...just rub some dirt on it -1
6. Vince Friese...who are these guys -1
7. Kyle Peters...you don't know me now, just give me a minute
8. Justin Hill...my name is Justin
9. Gavin Faith...just go man
10. Jimmy Decotis...hey Ricky, it's Decotis

Is everybody as excited as I am?  Supercross baby!  Only thing better is the outdoor season on natural terrain.  A little snow here in Colorado this week but I did get to take the YZ out last weekend.  No chance for riding this weekend; no problem, I have the best seat in the house for round 8.  See you next week.

The Roost'r

2013 Supercross | Arlington | 250SX East & 450SX Predictions

(photo: amasupercross.com)

Predicting Supercross results requires a lot of study time, more than I'm able to commit at this point and without that time commitment performance is sure to suffer.  My results leave a lot to be desired but I'm making progress.  For example, in San Diego, with a +/- 1 handicap I was 6 out of 10 in the 450 class and 5 out of 10 in the 250 class.  Before this year I would have just gone by points so I'm moving in the right direction.

The biggest surprises for me in San Diego were with Ryan Villopoto and Cole Seely.  These two guys had a terrible night and each left some valuable points on the table.  Villopoto at least has some time to recover but Seely may have just sealed his fate.  So now for the 450's it's upward and onward and for the 250's it's thunder in the East.

My spreadsheets are revealing some great statistics and there's still plenty of racing to go.  The week has gotten away from me so in the interest of time I'm going to keep my rider comments to one sentence or less.  I'm also going to give my picks an extra shot by calling a +/- handicap to see if I can boost my percentages a bit; something like a GPA booster I suppose.  Anyway, enough of that, let's get down to the greasy kid stuff.

450SX

1. Ryan Villopoto - I seem to be what I'm not, you see | -1
2. Davi Millsaps - Serendipitous? | -1
3. Justin Barcia - Keeping it real | +1
4. James Stewart - Kicking and a' gouging | -1
5. Ryan Dungey -Seeing is believing
6. Chad Reed - Flotsam and Jetsam
7. Trey Canard - Gentlemen, we can rebuild him, we have the technology | -1
8. Andrew Short -Temporary lay offs, Good Times | +1
9. Justin Brayton - Never underestimate the power of the Schwartz | -1
10. Matt Goerke - Where's Mike Alessi? | -1

250SX

For the East I've decided to hold my comments till the next round.  I did some research earlier in the year but after 6 rounds I'd like to judge each racer on their most recent performance.  Of course you can't ignore prior records so I had to put some thought into my picks but as we've seen, anything can happen.  The 250's are always flooded with rookies and at this level you can never tell how they'll stack up until the gate drops.  I think my picks are pretty sound but we'll just have to wait and see.

1. Darryn Durham | -1
2. Dean Wilson | +1
3. Marvin Musquin
4. Blake Wharton | +1    
5. Will Hahn | +1
6. Gavin Faith
7. Zachary Bell
8. Justin Hill
9. Seth Caldwell
10. Joey Peters

Had hoped for more time but this is the best I could do this week.  It's still my passion and I'm having one heck of a time.  I've never enjoyed racing so much, perhaps one day I'll be lucky enough to do this full time.  Till then, it's just me and my spreadsheets.

The Roost'r

2013 Supercross | San Diego | 250SX & 450SX Predictions

Photo credit: amasupercross.com

I would much rather be wrong in my predictions than have the same guys on the podium every week; that's the truth!  It just so happens that I stunk it up last week thanks to another crazy round in Anaheim.  The big story was the unbelievable perseverance of Ryan Dungey.  After watching him bring the hobbled KTM to a stop in his heat race then come back HUGE from way behind in the LCQ then topping it off with a 1st place finish in the main; now that's overcoming adversity.

KTM had a huge night with both a 250SX and 450SX win despite the miscalculation with Dungey's rear shock.  Millsaps is still the points leader and the luckiest guy on the planet.  There's no doubt that he's having his best year yet but the scene would look much different had it not been for others grappling with Murphy's law.  The 250SX class is perhaps a bit more predictable in terms of points but even that can unravel at any time.  The math should be a concern for the Tomac camp; he can't win even if he and Roczen come in 1st and 2nd from here on out.  All he can hope for is that Roczen stumbles and that is one heck of a Hail Mary.

So what do I think will happen this week? I was 20% in the 450SX class last week and a big fat goose egg in the 250SX class.  My results would have been better with a 1 handicap but we'll save that for later.  As for injuries, it sounds like Weimer is out and Josh Grant may not be far behind.  That said, let's run 'em down.

450 SUPERCROSS

1. Ryan Villopoto - He will not be denied!  RV is without question the fastest guy on the track but it will take him 6 rounds to steal the points lead from Millsaps if they run 1 and 2 going forward.  That shouldn't be a problem for RV; he had 9 overall wins last year.

2. Justin Barcia - I knew Barcia would ride smarter last week and what do you know, he's just as fast when you slow him down.  He didn't have enough time to catch Millsaps with Stewart crowding all the sweet passing lanes but he was charging hard and he'll have another chance this week.

3. Davi Millsaps - I still can't believe I have Millsaps in the top 5 but man has he earned it.  I'm picking him third this week not because I don't think he can win, I'm just playing the odds.  He's proved me wrong so far this year so let's see if he can beat the odds too.

4. Ryan Dungey - What an unbelievable night he had last week, I was literally on the edge of my seat.  Ryan finally got the start he wanted and how ironic that it came off the last gate pick.  We all know Ryan's strengths and he'll need those kinds of starts to maintain his momentum, I just don't think he'll pull it off this week.

5. Chad Reed - Two weeks in a row the #22 has caused some disruption.  I mentioned last week that this was rare and I suppose so are my predictions.  Will he ride mistake free this week?  San Diego has always been kind to Reed.

6. James Stewart - We have not seen James ride as well as he did last week all season.  He looked like the James of old.  Fading late in the race could be a sign of fatigue and either it's due to limited time on the bike or his knee is really giving him trouble, maybe both.  I think he'll have enough to maintain another top 10 finish but his hopes for a title are all but gone.

7. Trey Canard - Trey has had some setbacks lately and last week was no exception.  He's definitely on the gas, he just can't seem to ride mistake free.  I suppose avoiding serious mistakes are a step in the right direction so he should be somewhat pleased with that.

8. Andrew Short - It seems as if losing his team was the best thing to happen to Andrew in a while.  It is also a great testament to the skill of these riders-a works bike sure helps but it always comes down to the rider.  Andrew is on an inferior bike and he is showing us just what he's made of.

9. Justin Brayton - Came up with the holeshot then Chad Reed happened!  He still managed to come back through the pack and showed a lot of grit.  He's on a great bike and he should have better luck this week with Weimer and perhaps even Grant out of the picture.

10. Mike Alessi - Another tough week for Alessi.  He gives himself a shot every week with his starts and although I don't think he'll ever make it to the podium this season, I still believe he has the speed to finish in the top 10.

250 SUPERCROSS

1. Eli Tomac - In the mains, Eli is tough to beat if he gets out front.  What has been hurting him is his starts and even if he brings home the gold every week, it will be tough to catch Roczen.  One thing is for sure, he has no choice but to go for it all and hope Roczen falls on some bad luck.

2. Cole Seely - Cole is in the hot seat too and he'll need to turn it up from here on out.  He may not be riding under as much pressure as the other guys but his team knows he's still in the title race in the event trouble finds both Tomac and Roczen. 

3. Ken Roczen - Ken controls his own destiny.  They're crunching the numbers and he'll likely be instructed to protect his lead (stay out of trouble), which may not include shooting for an overall win.  He just needs to stay close to Tomac and the title is his.

4. Martin Davalos - Martin has emerged as a contender in a field dominated by Tomac, Seely and Roczen.  He was the second fastest last week and doesn't show any signs of slowing.  He just may be the spoiler sending Tomac and Seely scrambling for position; that's a great place to be.

5. Jason Anderson - Jason has the speed to challenge for the top spot, he just needs to avoid all the trouble that seems to find him in the mains.  He'll be fast as always but he won't be able to get past the top 4.

6. Kyle Cunningham - This has been an outstanding year for Cunningham and he can easily run in the top 3.  This class is really stacked and he and Jason Anderson have been challenging each other all season.  This is a really tough call.

7. Zach Osborne - Zach was the 6th fastest last week and if he can have a clean race he'll make the top 10.  He's another rider who has the potential to run up front.  He went down last week and has been complaining of some shoulder pain and it may bug him this week.

8. Tyla Rattray - More tough luck in the 250SX class and Tyla was a victim last week.  Tough night for Rattray and the team can't be happy about missing the main.  He'll ride a bit smarter this week.

9. Malcolm Stewart - Looks like Malcolm will be back for San Diego.  He's on the gas and sure to make up for last week.  He has to stay clear of trouble or he'll suffer the same fate.

10. Joey Savatgy - This is a rookie on fire.  His instincts and track presence are really coming along.  He showed a lot of grit last week proving he's ready to bang bars if he has to.  Another rookie to keep an eye on.

So these are my picks for San Diego.  "Outliers" suggests 10,000 hours of practice makes perfect so that means I just have 9995 hours to go; sure glad it's winter.

The Roost'r

 

2013 Supercross | Anaheim 3 | 250SX & 450SX Predictions

Photo credit: amasupercross.com

What a night in Oakland!  Ken Roczen got his first win and the points lead; Eli Tomac goes down and out; Ryan Villopoto was solid as usual and the clear favorite; Dungey slowly gaining ground, Stewart and Barcia suffer huge setbacks and Millsaps is still your points leader in the 450SX class.

I'm going to have to start giving myself a handicap; this season is so bizarre.  My picks were way off this week thanks to the thrills and spills throughout the evening; I had a feeling something was going to shake up the points standings but I wasn't brave enough to pick it.  I guess I'm not much of a prognosticator, yet!

From what I gather it seems Tomac will line up in Anaheim this weekend in good health.  Ken Roczen looked like a champ last week and if Tomac wasn't in the lineup I'd put my money on Roczen to take the championship.  Seely can make a run but he seems to fade late in the race and that's when Roczen really heats up.  Seely's only chance is a sizable lead going into about lap 17.  The rest of the field is terribly inconsistent with some exceptions of course and there's no telling what may happen next.

In the 450SX class, sounds like Barcia and Stewart are on the mends-I'm still not convinced Stewart will make it 17 rounds on that bum knee.  The story is still the iron will from the #18.  After 4 rounds he's still in the catbird seat but for how long?  I can appreciate the effort but can we say that Davi is the fastest man on the planet?  Villopoto is riding with such determination and the only one that can beat him is himself.  As for Dungey, it was frustrating watching him.  He had a chance to block pass on many occasions yet held off for the safe pass.  He will not get past his biggest competition riding like that.  Chad Reed sure mixed it up in turn one knocking out some of his competition yet couldn't recover from the disappointing start.

So I've decided, my goal going forward is no longer 80% of the top 10 but 100% of the top 5.  I'll continue my top 10 predictions and perhaps after a season or two I'll raise the goal.  For now, let's see what the magic 8 ball says......will I call the top 5 in any class...."outlook good."

450 SUPERCROSS CLASS

1. Ryan Villopoto - Who can argue with this pick?  There is no one on the track that can keep pace with him right now.  He attacks every part of the track and when he's behind he's even more dangerous.  He doesn't make a lot of mistakes and that's all his competition can count on.

2.  Ryan Dungey - This week the chips will fall Dungey's way.  He's had some bad luck lately yet he's still one of the fastest guys on the track.  It pains me to say that it all comes down to the start and if Dungey can just get a good start, he'll be able to hold his position; he'll need it because he has difficulty passing his fiercest competition.

3.  Davi Millsaps - After 4 weeks there is no reason why any of us should continue to doubt Millsaps, especially me.  He's been the most consistent, not quite the fastest but he's been riding very smart and has managed to stay out of trouble.  His starts have a lot to do with it and we're likely to see more of the same this week.

4.  Justin Barcia - Justin has the speed to run in 1st and he knows it.  The question is will he throw caution to the wind or will he realize he can't afford another DNF/DNS?  His instincts suggest the former but I would have to guess the latter will be his strategy.  He's had great starts at Anaheim and he'll need another one this weekend.

5.  Chad Reed - Sure, he caused the pile up last week and I'm sure he feels terrible about it.....hmmm.  This was a mistake he rarely makes and before then he was definitely making a run.  He was lucky to come out of that unscathed and he'll be ready to go this week.

6.  Jake Weimer - Sounds like Jake was out sick last week and if he's feeling better he'll be on the gate this weekend.  Jake seems to be on the verge of breaking out, he just needs that little extra push.  He reminds me a lot of Dungey; let's see who finally breaks the nice guy mentality.

7. James Stewart - As of this posting I have no information to indicate Stewart won't be in the lineup this weekend.  We all know how fast Stewart is and he should be running in the top 3 so there's definitely something to his injury.  In rounds 1 and 2 he was about as healthy as he's been all season and he still didn't place any higher than 7th.  I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he finishes in the top 10; I'm crossing my fingers.

8.  Andrew Short - With his team bowing out last week, he did the only thing a Supercross racer could do; RACE!  On a sub-par bike he soldiered on to a very impressive 6th place finish.  A ride like this should pique the interest of some sponsors so lets hope someone steps up to help him out.  Whatever happens, it won't keep this competitor out.

9.  Broc Tickle - It's only a matter of time before Tickle breaks the top 10 and I believe he has a great chance this week.  He couldn't find his way around Short last week and I don't believe he could have held him off either.  He'll need a better start and that's exactly what I think will happen this week.

10.  Mike Alessi - Alessi had his best showing last week coming in 5th but that's because of the Reed-n-roll in the first lap.  Clearly Alessi is best on the long track but I still think he's got the talent to make the top 10.  I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

250 SUPERCROSS CLASS

1.  Eli Tomac - Everyone has a bad day now and then and last week was Eli's.  It appears he's back to normal or at least that's what his camp is saying.  I'll believe 'em and this week Eli continues his domination.  He's been great at Anaheim and no one seems to have an answer for him.

2.  Ken Roczen - Roczen and Seely have been fairly even at the starts but Roczen seems to finish stronger.  He's the points leader now so he'll give it all he's got to hold onto the lead.  If Roczen and Tomac run in this order going forward it will take 4 rounds for Eli to catch up.  That means Roczen has a great shot at going into the break with the lead.

3.  Cole Seely - Cole will play spoiler for either Tomac or Roczen and I think that's a great spot to be in.  At this point he has the least to lose and as long as he rides mistake free, he just may have a shot at winning the whole thing.  Problem is Tomac and Roczen rarely make mistakes.

4.  Jason Anderson - The race gets really tight after 3rd place.  Jason has been riding fast on this track and with his 3rd visit he has to be dialed in.  He had a great start last week and no one could get past him, and last weeks track was difficult.  He'll be tough to catch this round too.

5.  Zach Osborne - I've been reviewing my metrics all week and I finally came to a decision on my number 5 pick.  Zach didn't get a good start last week but he's "trending" here at Anaheim.  He has the speed and track presence to keep the competition behind him, let's see if he can keep it up this week.

6.  Martin Davalos - We'll never forget that horrific crash in Phoenix and even more amazing was his resilience; that showed a lot of heart.  He'll ride with that same intensity this week and should have a great showing.  I still haven't seen the speed it takes to get by his top competitors but he's getting close.

7.  Jake Canada - Jake is perhaps having the worst luck of all this season.  I say this because he seems to be completely healthy, he clearly has the speed to run up front, he just tends to find himself in the wrong place at the wrong time.  I believe his luck will change this week.

8.  Tyla Rattray - Last week I predicted that Rattray would have a better ride than his teammate and I was wrong.  After 4 rounds it's becoming clear that Davalos has the edge on Tyla.  Pro Circuit has to be pleased with the teams' performance but they won't be happy unless these guys compete for a championship.

9.  Jessy Nelson - Jessy is a rising star in this class and it's only a matter of time before he finds his way to the front.  The whole TLD, Lucas Oil Honda team has been outstanding this year and this rider in particular is showing a lot of potential.  It'll take a little luck to find his way to this spot and I think it'll find him this week.

10.  Kyle Cunningham - Kyle and Jessy are pretty well matched and last time at Anaheim Jessy wasn't able to get by Cunningham.  For these two it will absolutely come down to the start.  Whoever gets the better start will hold the position to the checkered flag, unfortunately for Kyle I think Nelson beats him to turn 1.

There you have it, the top 10 for each class.  I'm shooting for 100% of the top 5 in each class and I'm confident I'm getting closer.  I'm looking forward to another live broadcast; I wish I was there!

The Roost'r