Saturday, March 23, 2013

2013 Supercross | Toronto | 250SX & 450SX Predictions



Photo: amasupercross.com

We all know how dangerous the sport of Supercross can be, much like putting your life savings in a Cyprus bank account.  Seriously though, none of us like to see our heroes go down and Indianapolis looks to have ended the season for one of the title favorites in the 250SX class; Dean Wilson.  Preliminary reports indicated some rather serious injuries but sounds like they’ve been revised although still significant.  Trey Canard also went down and it’s been reported that he may not make the trip to Toronto this week.  Our prayers, thoughts and hopes for a speedy recovery are with you guys.

Making Supercross predictions is like playing the lottery; your picks are made, then the anticipation followed by the agonizing disappointment as your riders, one by one, finds their way out of the race.  I just wish I had the kind of luck following Marvin Musquin at Indianapolis.  Of course winning a race takes unbelievable skill but luck doesn’t hurt unless you ask Blake Wharton.

The 450 class brought the noise too!  Stewart was well on his way to another win until a small error that cost him the lead but nothing could have prepared us for the battle of the Ryan’s.  I was just waiting for the Dungey pass that never came but it wasn’t for lack of trying.  Dungey kept it close all the way to the checkered flag but Villopoto would ultimately take the checkered flag.  Millsaps had a difficult time and made it worse in the last lap by laying it over as he watched Stewart cruise by.

The series moves to Canada this week and if this week is anything like last, expect an exciting night of racing.  I’m hoping Dungey can keep up the momentum but it will be tough if Stewart rides mistake free and Villopoto seems to step it up at exactly the right time.  As for the 250 class, Musquin is going to be hard to beat but Hahn will give it his best shot.  With Wilson out, there is room for some of the other guys to gain some more attention e.g. Peters, Martin, Bell, etc.

Napoleon Bonaparte once said “never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”  Ride smart you guys and make your own luck; Toronto, here they come.

450SX

1.Ryan Villopoto (-1)
2.James Stewart (+1)
3.Ryan Dungey (-1)
4.Davi Millsaps (+1)
5.Justin Barcia (-1)
6.Chad Reed (+1)
7.Eli Tomac (-1)
9.Andrew Short (-1)
10.Matt Goerke (+1)

250SX

1.Marvin Musquin (-1)
2.Will Hahn (+1)
3.Jeremy Martin (-1)
4.Blake Wharton (+1)
5.Vince Friese (-1)
6.Justin Hill (+1)
7.A.J. Catanzaro (+1)
8.Kyle Peters (+1)
9.Zach Bell (-1)
10.James Decotis (-1)

Check in again next week, till then….

The Roost’r

Friday, March 15, 2013

2013 Supercross | Indianapolis | 250SX & 450SX Predictions

Photo: Frank Hoppen, supercrossonline
This is the Ides of March edition of my Supercross predictions and shall be celebrated famously with drinking and revelry as I pour a glass of St. Patrick’s delightful team green inspired suds.

Daytona is behind us and what a spectacular night of racing.  The Ricky Carmichael designed track was conceived with the riders in mind and as a spectator it seemed a bit unusual.  It didn’t appear to flow like the others and although the riders didn’t seem to mind it kept the race pace in check.  Other than that, it was quite entertaining. 

It was great to see another new winner in the 250 class.  I knew it would only be a matter of time before Marvin Musquin put together some solid laps.  He dominated Daytona and should keep his place on my leader board.  Cole Thompson I thought had a great ride as did Blake Wharton.  In the 450 class I was quite surprised by the performance of both Eli Tomac and Ken Roczen.  I thought Roczen would have the better night and it was turning out that way until Roczen began to fade just as Eli was heating up.  The usual suspects in the 450 class did not have a lot of surprises and Millsaps began to show some kinks in his armor and what happened to James Stewart?

So far my best round has been San Diego, where I was 30% overall.  This round, with my handicaps, I was 25% overall.  I have been concentrating more on overall performances rather than finishes and points standings so I’m not too concerned with my prediction results.  I started all this as a crash course in race analysis and predictions just sort of seemed like a good idea.  It sure adds a whole new perspective as a spectator and this experience has proven to be one heck of an experiment.  It’s a lot of fun for me and I hope it’s a little entertaining for my readers.

So now we’re headed to The Crossroads of America and Lucas Oil Stadium, former home of our hall of fame quarterback, Peyton Manning.  So will the Green teams rule the day?  They’ll score high this weekend although I’m only predicting one on the top box.  Grab yourself an ice cold ‘green’ one, here are my picks over this St. Patrick’s Day weekend.

450SX

1.Ryan Villopoto (-1)
2.Davi Millsaps (-1)
3.James Stewart (+1)
4.Justin Barcia (-1)
5.Ryan Dungey (+1)
6.Chad Reed (+1)
7.Trey Canard (-1)
8.Justin Brayton (+1)
9.Eli Tomac (+1)
10.Matt Goerke (+1)

250SX

1.Will Hahn (-1)
2.Dean Wilson (+1)
3.Marvin Musquin (+1)
4.Jeremy Martin (-1)
5.Blake Wharton (+1)
6.Cole Thompson (-1)
7.Justin Hill (+1)
8.Kyle Peters (-1)
9.Vince Friese (-1)
10.Gavin Faith (+1)

There they are the top ten in each class.  Monster Energy green will have some company this weekend.  Don’t forget to drink responsibly, there is a lot of riding to do this summer and you don’t want to spend that time recovering from a mistake.  Here they come Indy, enjoy!

The Roost’r

Saturday, March 9, 2013

2013 Supercross | Daytona | 250SX & 450SX Predictions



(photo: amasupercross.com)

What an exciting night in St. Louis last week.  I was on my feet for the whole 450 main-what an unbelievable display of prowess.  The broadcast crew set it up perfectly and the boys on the track were bringing it.  Great night for Stewart and with some heads up racing by Villopoto and some risky passes under Red, Yellow and Crossed flags he found his way up front.  Barcia may be finding his rhythm again and if he can ride mistake free he’ll make it on the box.  Sounds like Kyle Chisholm has escaped serious injury, which we can all breathe a sigh of relief.  I love this sport and I know these guys hang it all on the line for our entertainment and they deserve our many thanks, and dollars I might add.  NFL guys have nothing on our Supercross athletes.  Hope to see all our injured athletes twisting the throttle soon.

Big news for Daytona is Ken Roczen on a 450.  Eli has not really proven to be much of a threat and I have a sneaking suspicion that Roczen will fare better than his counterpart-top 10?  Hahn and Wilson have their own little rivalry brewing or rather boiling over with such a short season.  Hahn I believe has an edge; he seems to have found another gear in the off-season because he is riding with a definite purpose.  Jeremy Martin is emerging and don’t let the 5th place fool you.  He had a terrible start and worked his way up to 5th, he had a great night.  Cole Thompson was another guy who made a statement last week.  Two guys we’ll keep an eye on this week.

So for those not paying attention, with my handicap last week in St. Louis I was 30% in the 450 class and 20% in the 250 class.  That 100% of my top 5 goal still eludes me but a lot more is going on behind the scenes at the Roost’r camp so stayed tuned.  The big showcase that is Daytona finally arrives this week and I have my favorites.  We never know what the weather will bring this time of year and if we’re lucky we’ll get another ‘slop’ like we did in 2008.  We’re in Daytona this week guys, remember “glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever.”  Let’s get it on!

450SX Class

1.James Stewart -1
2.Ryan Villopoto +1
3.Davi Millsaps -1
4.Chad Reed +1
5.Ryan Dungey +1
6.Justin Barcia +1
7.Ken Roczen -1
8.Trey Canard +1
9.Eli Tomac +1
10. Justin Brayton +1

250SX Class

1.Dean Wilson -1
2.Will Hahn +1
3.Marvin Musquin -1
4.Jeremy Martin -1
5.Blake Wharton +1
6.Lance Vincent -1
7.Vince Friese +1
8.Cole Thompson -1
9.Zach Bell -1
10.Gavin Faith +1

Looks like we may get a few inches of snow here in Boulder County and should be blowing pretty good right about the time pre-race festivities begin.  I’m crossing my fingers that it doesn’t interfere with my satellite signal-what shall I do? 

The Roost’r

Friday, March 1, 2013

2013 Supercross | St Louis | 250SX & 450SX Predictions



(photo: amasupercross.com)
There was nothing routine about what went down in Atlanta last week.  That statement speaks volumes about the Supercross season so far.  For the first time this season, it felt like the same ‘ole same ‘ole.  Of course there were two new winners on the top box this round and that may have been the only common factor last weekend.

I can enjoy Supercross under any circumstance but I have to say that I sat comfortably in my seat this round, even got up to answer the phone on occasion.  It was cool to see Eli on the big bike again and what a great week for James Stewart and Will Hahn.  They both took the early lead and no one had an answer for them.  It was also nice to hear that a ride has finally found Andrew Short; all he has to do now is get results.  He deserves a mulligan for last week but if he can produce on a production bike, he should have no problem getting up to speed on a works bike.

So how did I do last week you ask?  Not great.  I’m 16% for the year and last week with my +/-1 handicap I was 20%.  Over here at Team Roost’r I am holding a vote to enforce my own personal brand of sequestration because something’s gotta give!  Shall we move to a +/-2 handicap?  I suspect I’ll vote it down for another week.

So what will $85 billion bring to my Supercross picks this week?  The top 5 calls, finally?  I doubt it so who cares?  No one apparently so let’s move on with a little TCB.

450SX

1.James Stewart – ran first on a slick track, look out, James is back
2.Davi Millsaps – he’s for real and deserves our respect (-1)
3.Ryan Villopoto – great start last week, nothing more (+1)
4.Justin Barcia – keeping it on two wheels, that’s progress (+1)
5.Ryan Dungey – should be able to hold onto his points standing (+1)
6.Eli Tomac – no rest for the wicked (+1)
7.Chad Reed – where’s the confidence we’re so used to from TwoTwo (-1)
8.Trey Canard – focused but still room for improvement (+1)
9.Jake Weimer – catching his groove (+1)
10.Justin Brayton – so close yet so far away (+1)

250SX

1.Dean Wilson – humbled by adversity, add consistency and the title is his to lose (-1)
2.Marvin Musquin – riding with determination (-1)
3.Will Hahn – first win is the sweetest, will be looking for more (+1)
4.Blake Wharton – consistency works only in the absence of consistency (-1)
5.Lance Vincent – poor showing last week, will need to step up (-1)
6.Vince Friese – has the skills but needs solid laps (+1)
7.Jeremy Martin – on the gas last week (-1)
8.Justin Hill – tough ride in Atlanta (-1)
9.Kyle Peters – on my radar since Dallas (-1)
10.Gavin Faith – held tough last week (+1)