2014 Supercross | Daytona Predictions

Photo: racerxonline.com

Indy turned into a night out with Hunter S. Thompson; adrenalized lunacy and paranoia followed by bewilderment then acceptance and you could see it right on Ken Roczen's face.  No one could use a sober remedy more than Kenny, who left the main after his 'boom shakalaka' off a triple on the loamy Indianapolis track.  Ivan Tedesco also had a scary moment just off the start but it looks like he'll be ok.

First timers Seely and Wilson had fine performances while Tomac and Dungey showed off their potential.  Villopoto and Stewart were in damage control mode and each managed to come out of Indy without incident.  Mike Alessi once again had a great qualifying round and a great start in the main but true to form he can't seem to close.  He's got a lot of heart but something is missing and I suspect he won't find the missing ingredient before Las Vegas.  One rider who rode out of his mind was Josh Hill, only Stewart scored higher on my chart with Villopoto not far behind, and that's some great company.  Kudos to Josh Hill.

The 250 class was far less volatile than the 450 class (see charts below) which is uncommon given the experience differential.  This is just more proof that this week was unusual on a number of levels.  Baggett, Cunningham, Oldenburg and Bogle all had outstanding performances, all scoring high on my TRAP this week.  Cianciarulo once again was the beneficiary of a Davalos faux pas.  To his credit, Adam was exactly where he needed to be thanks to his great start.

So last week I decided to try and predict rider momentum and thanks to the orgy of consequences my results blew.  I did however rediscover how consistent, in terms of pure performance, some of these riders actually are, at least over the past 2 rounds.  As it turns out, many of the top 10 had inconsistent finishes but their performances were rather consistent.  Daytona is a favorite stop for many reasons; if we're lucky we might have some foul weather (who can forget the 'slop' back in 2008.)  Check out http://racerxonline.com/2014/03/04/sign-of-the-lap-times-indianapolis for the play by play.

Henry David Thoreau once wrote "never look back unless you are planning to go that way."  There is only one chance at second chances, who will emerge in the second half?  SX thunder is coming to Daytona - line up the shot glasses; picks-a-pouring...

450 SX (+/- handicap)

1. Stewart, J (-1)
2. Villopoto (+1)
3. Roczen (+1)
4. Dungey (+1)
5. Tomac (+1)
6. Barcia (-1)
7. Tickle (+1)
8. Brayton (+1)
9. Grant (+1)
10. Wilson (+1)

250 SX (+/- handicap)

1. Davalos (-1)
2. Cianciarulo (+1)
3. Bogle (-1)
4. Baggett (+1)
5. Friese (-1)
6. Wharton (-1)
7. Thompson (-1)
8. Decotis (+1)
9. Bisceglia (-1)
10. Oldenburg (+1)

The Roost'r