2014 Supercross | Seattle Predictions

Photo: racerxonline.com

Last week in Houston was like watching a classic defensive struggle; not a lot of offense but you can't help but appreciate the two opposing forces.

The riders seemed to struggle with the track but it didn't seem to affect their relative performance.  There were however a couple of outliers which seems to indicate that some riders were more comfortable than others.  Ryan Dungey for example had the top score in the 450 class with a whopping 39.9% relative performance over his closest rival, James Stewart. The 250 class was tight with Jake Canada taking the top spot by a narrow margin of 4.6% (see charts below).

In terms of improvement from race to race from our top 10 this week, Mike Alessi had the greatest improvement from last week with a factor of 71.03%.  In the 250 class going back to San Diego, excluding Dean Wilson and Cooper Webb, the rider who improved the most was Malcolm Stewart with a factor of 12.99%.  I excluded Wilson and Webb because they had unusually poor performances at San Diego and subsequently showed excessive out performance.

Villopoto is on the cusp, Stewart is on the outside looking in, JGR and RCH are out of gas, Honda's are treading and the KTM's are taking on water; the 450 field is thinning out and there's not much time for anyone to change their circumstances.  The 250 class on the other hand is prime and ready to battle to the end as we head into the final stretch.

My record for this round from last year was lower with 30% from 50% with the handicap.  Plenty of room for improvement, I guess the riders weren't the only ones who struggled last week.  I'm sour on Seattle for embarrassing my Denver Broncos (yes, I said it) but I won't let that stop me from tuning in.  Supercross heads for the house of the Legion Of Boom, where green dominates on and off the field, will the Kawasaki's rule the day?  I guess we'll find out soon enough.  Seattle picks...

450 SX (+/- handicap)

1. Villopoto (-1)
2. Stewart, (+1)
3. Barcia (-1)
4. Canard (-1)
5. Dungey (+1)
6. Roczen (+1)
7. Tomac (-1)
8. Short (+1)
9. Hill (+1)
10. Peick (+1)

250 SX (+/- handicap)

1. Anderson (-1)
2. Seely (+1)
3. Hill (-1)
4. Wilson (+1)
5. Webb (+1)
6. Stewart (+1)
7. Osborne (+1)
8. McElrath (-1)
9. Nelson (+1)
10. Canada (+1)

The Roost'r